The 2017 Oscars: My Predictions

The Academy Awards are tonight and so I thought I would share my thoughts on it. This was a great year for film, but I have my favorites.

Here is how I’m going to present this: I’ll discuss who I think will win and then my personal favorites in each category. I’m only concentrating on the major categories as I did not see all of the Best Foreign Film and Animated Film nominees.

I know, I’m a bad cinephile. When movie watching isn’t your day job, it’s a little difficult to get them all in.

Here we go!

Best Picture

Nominees: Arrival, La La Land, Fences, Hell Or High Water, Hidden Figures, Hacksaw Ridge, Manchester By The Sea, Lion, Moonlight

Moonlight source: A24

Arrival appealed to the science fiction fan and made me think. Hell Or High Water was a wonderful modern day Western that I loved because of its amazing script (Remember this later). Hidden Figures was entertaining and inspiring while Lion had some structure issues. Manchester By the Sea and Fences were buoyed by amazing acting, but in my eyes were only solid films.

Hacksaw Ridge was visceral and visually striking, but I got a feeling of deja vu while watching it. While it is a great film, the fact that some look at it as a sleeper for best picture is a mystery to me. For one thing, it has not won a lot of other awards and quite frankly we have seen the story done before…and honestly I’ve seen it done better.

For me it’s a two film race between La La Land and Moonlight. Everyone who knows me has heard me sing the praises of La La Land (Despite my inability to sing…see what I did there?). I have a borderline obsession with the film and I am definitely rooting for it.

But I believe that Moonlight was truly a great film. From its acting to the soundtrack and the brilliant visual storytelling, it was nearly flawless. It told a unique story that put you in the shoes of its protagonist masterfully. And as much as I loved La La Land, there were flaws that bugged me a bit.

I would be very happy if La La Land won and it most likely will, but Moonlight is a notch better.

Rooting to Win: La La Land

Who Should Win: Moonlight

Who Will Win: La La Land

Best Director

Nominees: Denis Villeneuve (Arrival), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester By the Sea), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

source: Summit Entertainment

Some may disqualify Lonergan right off the bat since Manchester By the Sea was “simply” a dialogue heavy drama. But skilled directors have to get amazing performances from their actors and Lonergan did that. Jenkins had to juggle three different actors playing his main character while also brilliantly using visual storytelling…that was no easy feat.

Gibson will get a lot of love (And deservedly so) for his stunning work on Hacksaw Ridge. Villeneuve created a very different but equally stunning visual style for Arrival.

But for me, this is a one horse race. Damien Chazelle created an amazingly vibrant world for La La Land. Every musical sequence was beautiful and the attention to detail was everywhere on screen. And he coaxed great performances from his two leads, Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling. I think the Academy will see it that same way as I do.

Rooting to Win: Damien Chazelle

Who Should Win: Damien Chazelle

Who Will Win: Damien Chazelle

Best Actor

Nominees: Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)

source: Roadside Attractions/Amazon Studios

For me, this is between Affleck and Washington. Garfield was great as the hero Desmond Doss in Hacksaw Ridge, Mortensen was quietly great in Captain Fantastic and Gosling continued to show his comedic chops in La La Land. But those two performances were just amazing.

Affleck’s portrayal of a broken man was subtly powerful. I have seen some dismiss his performance as one note, but that would be foolish. He managed to inject humanity and humor into this dark character that adds another level to the sullen Lee Chandler.

In Fences, Denzel Washington gave a powerful performance…possibly my favorite of his career. Troy Maxson was a complicated man, bitter from his failures, but also charismatic and loving. In other words, he was human.

Affleck’s performance was great, but Washington’s was utterly perfect. There were so many levels to his performance. It could get showy and it could be beautifully subtle. Affleck is the likely winner in this category and I would not be heartbroken if he wins, but Washington is my personal favorite.

source: Paramount Pictures

Rooting to Win: Denzel Washington

Who Should Win: Denzel Washington

Who Will Win: Casey Affleck

Best Actress

Nominees: Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

This is probably the hardest category to call. I will admit this much: I haven’t seen Elle so I can’t truly judge Huppert’s performance. I have read that she is something of a dark horse to win a heavily contested category. Ruth Negga was the highlight of Loving, which was something of a disappointment.

Meryl Streep is her usual great self in Florence Foster Jenkins, but part of me feels like her spot should have gone to Amy Adams in Arrival. Adams was amazing in a role that required a lot of subtle acting and she did it. It is tough though…Streep was really good.

This category comes down to Natalie Portman and Emma Stone. Portman completely disappeared into her portrayal of Jackie Kennedy. Mesmerizing at times, the performance was a textbook definition of what the Academy looks for. In any other year, Portman would be a natural choice.

source: Summit Entertainment

But in the year of La La Land, Stone is probably the closest thing to a favorite in this category. She was the heart of that film, giving some real emotion to the glossy technicolor world Damian Chazelle created. She was charming as she always has been, but there was more to her than the typical romantic lead. She was amazing in the more emotional scenes.

I am openly rooting for Emma Stone in this category. I believe that many are not giving her enough credit for this role. She is the favorite to win and I think she deserves it. Portman’s role is the more “showy” of the two, but Stone’s has just a little more heart to it.

Rooting to Win: Emma Stone

Who Should Win: Emma Stone

Who Will Win: Emma Stone

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester By The Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

source: A24

Mahershala Ali was simply amazing as Juan in Moonlight and this is probably as close a lock as it gets in any category. Admittedly, his screen time was limited, but he made the most of it. His character echoed throughout the film, a testament to how powerful his performance was.

Jeff Bridges was great in Hell or High Water, but we have seen this type of performance from him before. Lucas Hedges had some great chemistry with Affleck in Manchester. It is great to see Patel here, becoming more than just “that kid from Slumdog Millioinaire,” but his role in Lion was in that film’s weakest part. And while Michael Shannon was good, he feels a bit out of place here.

Rooting to Win: Mahershala Ali

Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali

Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester By The Sea)

Much like the Best Actress category, this one is a bit hard to call. There are three favorites here: Naomie Harris, Michelle Williams and Viola Davis. All the actresses were great in their roles. Williams’ role was surprisingly small though.

I will say I’m a little disappointed that Janelle Monae is not in this category. With all due respect to Spencer, Monae’s character was the most memorable of the supporting characters in Hidden Figures. Kidman was solid as well in Lion, but much like Patel’s role, her character appears in my least favorite part of that film.

source: A24

I am rooting for Harris here because she brought so many layers to addict Paula in Moonlight. She was truly a tragic character and we actually began to sympathize with her. Viola Davis was great as always, but I give Harris the edge here.

Rooting to Win: Naomie Harris

Who Should Win: Naomie Harris

Who Will Win: Naomie Harris

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Eric Heisserer (Arrival-From “Story of Your Life” By Ted Chiang), August Wilson (Fences-From “Fences” by August Wilson), Alison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi (Hidden Figures-From Hidden Figures by Margot Lee Shetterly), Luke Davies (Lion-From A Long Way Home by Saroo Brierley and Larry Buttrose), Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McRaney (Moonlight-From In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue by Tarell Alvin McRaney)

Since I am an aspiring screenwriter, I had to include the screenwriting categories!

Lion was a solid film, but those pacing problems in the second act seemed to originate from the script. In some ways it was understandable, as the story of Saroo Brierley involved so many characters and events it was possibly difficult to condense all of that into a two hour film.  Hidden Figures did a much better job of condensing so much material into an entertaining and perfectly paced film.

source: 20th Century Fox

Fences’ dialogue was amazing and was almost lyrical, but many of its scenes felt very “stagy” and often would go on a little too long. Washington added many cinematic touches to the film, but I have to wonder if any of those originated from the script.

I have said this a lot in the article, but this is truly a tough one to call. Arrival was one of my favorite narratives this past year. Truly great science fiction that made you think, the film’s story twisted and turned delightfully.

On the other hand, Moonlight’s story made amazing use of visual storytelling. As a writer, I know that is never easy. How much of the visuals were put into the script? I don’t know, but director Jenkins was also co-writer, so maybe they were in there.

I would give this award to Arrival, though that may be the science fiction nerd in me. But Moonlight will almost certainly take home the award here, especially if it does not win Best Picture.

Rooting to Win: Arrival

Who Should Win: Arrival

Who Will Win: Moonlight

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Taylor Sheridan (Hell Or High Water), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou (The Lobster), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester By The Sea), Mike Mills (20th Century Women)

source: CBS Films/Lionsgate

The Western fan in me really wants Sheridan to win for Hell Or High Water. Besides being an excellent modern day Western, it had a relevant story for these troubled financial times. But it is a long shot at best. The Lobster had one of the most unique premises in a very long time and I would be very pleasantly surprised should it pull out the win.

Unfortunately, I have not seen 20th Century Women so I cannot access its quality or chances. Yes…I am a terrible cinephile. Manchester By the Sea was a solid story, but that film was more of an actor’s film.

La La Land is almost assuredly going to win here. It took a new spin on a classic premise and found a way to balance the heartbreak with the utter joy of pursuing your dreams. I have my favorites, but the favorite here is definitely worthy of the award.

Rooting to Win: Hell Or High Water

Who Should Win: The Lobster

Who Will Win: La La Land

There you have it! My take on the Oscars tonight. I am probably wrong as hell, but it should be fun to see what happens.